Week Ahead – 25-02-2018

GBP/USD – We have some big news on Friday for GBP as May speaks. There could be a lot of resistance to trade this week due to her speaking on Friday. We may see a small trend appear over the course of the week due to there no big influx of volume as we wait for her speech.

This has caught my eye on the H1 chart on GBP/USD. I expect to see candles like this on the M1 to M15 chart but on a H1 chart. This sparks red flags in my mind. This could be a set up for a major push past the high of 1.43422 or could be the indication of someone scalping with the ease of low volume (it happened on a Friday)

As you can see from the GBP/USD daily chart we are in the mid-range territory. So my suspicions of this being an attempt at breaking that recent high of the above handle of 1.43 could be a possibility. If we get a continuation of this uptrend during the weekdays and are close to the 1.41460 by Thursday I could see us pushing in an attempt at the 1.43442 resistance area. Now if we see a downtrend push and we break the interday support of 1.39057 that we saw on Friday then that to me could suggest that GBP traders are not confident in what May’s speech will include.

EUR/USD – ECB President Draghi Speaks at 2pm GMT on Monday. 

As we can see on EUR/USD daily chart we’ve formed a triple top. To me, this instantly suggests that we are in range trading territory. We’ve managed to keep support above the main support zone of 1.22060 to 1.22750. This could suggest depending on how the ECB speech goes we could see another attempt at the mid-range resistance of 1.242883. A break of the mentioned support zone could see us down to 1.206723 support.

USD/JPY – If we see EUR weakness from the ECB speech and also GBP weakness due to many traders holding back until we get more information from Mays speech on Friday. We could see the dollar gaining some beginning week strength. We have found a major support zone on USD/JPY

as you can see 105.540 acted as major support for USD/JPY. We’ve had an attempt of the 108 area and we failed. But it’s expected from a volume beginning week push. Retrace is always expected at key resistance levels. If we do see EUR & GBP weakness we could see this support acting as a push to the main resistance of 109.768. A Fail to brake this level could see a possible range traded down trend like we’ve seen over the past month down to 104.286688 area.


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