GBP/USD – As you can see the from daily chart above. We are in a downtrend movement on GBP/USD. We’ve found good support in the area of1.372933 to 1.376455 witches carried us up to the inerdowntrend line of a high for the week of 1.392999. Over the course of Thursday evening and Friday, we failed to break past these highs and saw an interday from to the low of 1.37813 and picked up support there to touch to the inerdowntrend line once again. On Tuesday we have the Annual Budget Release and we have more news for GBP & USD over the course of the week. By the looks of it, we are in a downtrend towards the support of 1.36169.
If you take a look at the daily GBP/USD chart you may see overall we are in an uptrend. But you might notice we have to touch the ‘mean’ price before we see a continuation in this uptrend…
EUR/USD – Well as we can see from the chart below EUR/USD is once again in range territory. And just like GBP/USD we seem to hit the ‘mean’ price before a continuation to the tops. The levels that we have seen on EUR/USD on the 1st March. Have acted as good support for EUR/USD and imply a range trade over towards the mean price and then a break to the lower side to create a ‘buyers pool’ for another attempt at the highs.
USD/JPY – This is interesting. It’s finally broken out of the downtrend but hit resistance on of the main uptrend lines that you can see on the chart. I do suspect USD/JPY to push towards the 108 handle and even for 109 depending on how the USD data this week is presented. I do only see this being a retrace and not a “dollar strong story”. A key area that I’m keeping an eye on is the 107.866933 area. (red line on the chart below) If we break this it could imply the push to the 109.768 and could spark a sell-off on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
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The area of 1.376455 to 1.372902 (bottom blue area of picture) is either going to act as major support to keep us above the 1.37 handle to range trade towards the outer trend line or we’re going to see it act as major resistance if we break it to see us a push to to the outtrend line.
GBP/USD – We have some big news on Friday for GBP as May speaks. There could be a lot of resistance to trade this week due to her speaking on Friday. We may see a small trend appear over the course of the week due to there no big influx of volume as we wait for her speech.
This has caught my eye on the H1 chart on GBP/USD. I expect to see candles like this on the M1 to M15 chart but on a H1 chart. This sparks red flags in my mind. This could be a set up for a major push past the high of 1.43422 or could be the indication of someone scalping with the ease of low volume (it happened on a Friday)
As you can see from the GBP/USD daily chart we are in the mid-range territory. So my suspicions of this being an attempt at breaking that recent high of the above handle of 1.43 could be a possibility. If we get a continuation of this uptrend during the weekdays and are close to the 1.41460 by Thursday I could see us pushing in an attempt at the 1.43442 resistance area. Now if we see a downtrend push and we break the interday support of 1.39057 that we saw on Friday then that to me could suggest that GBP traders are not confident in what May’s speech will include.
EUR/USD – ECB President Draghi Speaks at 2pm GMT on Monday.
As we can see on EUR/USD daily chart we’ve formed a triple top. To me, this instantly suggests that we are in range trading territory. We’ve managed to keep support above the main support zone of 1.22060 to 1.22750. This could suggest depending on how the ECB speech goes we could see another attempt at the mid-range resistance of 1.242883. A break of the mentioned support zone could see us down to 1.206723 support.
USD/JPY – If we see EUR weakness from the ECB speech and also GBP weakness due to many traders holding back until we get more information from Mays speech on Friday. We could see the dollar gaining some beginning week strength. We have found a major support zone on USD/JPY
as you can see 105.540 acted as major support for USD/JPY. We’ve had an attempt of the 108 area and we failed. But it’s expected from a volume beginning week push. Retrace is always expected at key resistance levels. If we do see EUR & GBP weakness we could see this support acting as a push to the main resistance of 109.768. A Fail to brake this level could see a possible range traded down trend like we’ve seen over the past month down to 104.286688 area.